Jinping pong

b1-66er (some guy): 

What's your take on this shake, counselor?

I think it's super interesting. https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/19/asia/china-hong-kong-npc-mask-ban-intl-hnk/index.html

...and i wonder if spy stuff isn't downat the very root of it all.

D4rw1n (international trade lawyer): 

I agree - super interesting. My thoughts:

1. I'm 100% certain that a major reason the Chinese want a mask ban is so they can track protesters with facial recognition tech. I'm also certain that the protesters' use of masks is 50% tear gas protection (an npr reporter filed a muffled report Saturday - she was introduced by the anchor as "reporting through a gas mask" because of so much tear gas on the scene) and 50% facial recognition countermeasure

 Aside: I heard a long-form interview of one protester on This American Life where she said umbrellas are rain protection, facial recognition countermeasure, and rubber bullet defense. "we don't know why, but they just bounce off" - or words to that effect. I found that super interesting.

b1: Yeah.  

It's a surface tension thing, like skipping a rock on water. You don't wanna catch that reflection, though, because then that bastard is tumbling...

...you also don't want a partially collapsed umbrella.

D4: Right 

 Break your jaw or put out an eye 

 3. I don't think anybody knows what the hell is constitutional or not in Hong Kong. I'm pretty sure the mainland legislature will overturn the court decision because nobody in Hong Kong has any authority to say otherwise 

b1: THE big thing of that article is the constitutionality concept...

They've got a weird problem.  Because...

A) they know HK makes them look cooler on the world stage (it does).  And it also provides a cultural translator to the W.

It provides something like 10% of the GDP to the entire country.

So it seems like you gotta hang on.

But if you get a Draconian, you kill the golden egg layer.

D4: Right. But you can't let it undermine your absolute rule on the mainland

b1: And B) people on the mainland HAVE to be hearing, at least distorted, things about what's going on through rumor and friends of relatives of friends...

There's gonna be some crazy hacker underground too.

D4: Yes. Super sophisticated programmer community from what you read 

b1: I think the underlying problem is you've got a country moving in what they want to be a lock step...

But the society doesn't encourage individual thought...

So you don't have the raw politboro tools to figure out how to crack it. 

D4: I see where you're going. It's a risk to train people to be sheep when some of your biggest problems will require some seriously creative thinking 

b1: Exactly.

Because that, right here, right now, is what they need.

And the people who have that?  For goddamn sure they're not going to raise their heads.

To me this all feels like Berlin on about November 6, 1991.

D4: There's a counterargument though.  Kai-Fu Lee in AI Superpowers.

Says the West's (admittedly comforting, to me) characterization of China as conformist is off.

He thinks they are highly creative and flexible 

And thinks that is what could propel them to global economic dominance 

I don't recall the book applying this argument to constitutional politics 

But there's a compelling anecdote about the central government adjusting on the fly when a big entrepreneur demonstrated good results in a dedicated tech

economist zone he created 

Govt adopted it right away and created conditions for it to take off in like 100 additional cities 

b1: I personally know Kai Fu.  He's not right in this case.

D4: Huh - want to talk further about his book then

b1: I haven't read it.  Sounds like i should first.

He was the voice recognition guy at AAPL and i was the evangelist.  He was working on a competitive program that the company bought (i think) and then incorporated...

...we'd bounce ideas off each other.

I don't know his background.

And i don't, for a second, think that we in the W -or the U.S. specifically- have some sort of unblinkered view of an absolute truth...

...everything WE think/believe/view is colored by high capitalism.

D4: No, but I definitely am prone to wishful thinking when it comes to China - hoping they'll implode 

(Before we do)

b1: But what's the result? 

 People don't get that everything changes, always.  That we're not one block away from finishing the pyramid...

No.  

We're another step around the track.  

No lap limit.

D4: Right 

b1: Like let's look at a different problem. 

The environment.

Let's say you fix EVERYTHING.  Air.  Plastics.  Water.  Animals.  Plants.  Everything...

...Okay.  You fixed it.  Good job.  Hard.  Good good job...

Now what?